## 1.2 Concepts of MCAR, MAR and MNAR

Before we review a number of simple fixes for the missing data in Section 1.3 let us take a short look at the terms MCAR, MAR and MNAR. A more detailed definition of these concepts will be given later in Section 2.2.3. Rubin (1976) classified missing data problems into three categories. In his theory every data point has some likelihood of being missing. The process that governs these probabilities is called the missing data mechanism or response mechanism. The model for the process is called the missing data model or response model.

If the probability of being missing is the same for all cases, then the data are said to be missing completely at random (MCAR). This effectively implies that causes of the missing data are unrelated to the data. We may consequently ignore many of the complexities that arise because data are missing, apart from the obvious loss of information. An example of MCAR is a weighing scale that ran out of batteries. Some of the data will be missing simply because of bad luck. Another example is when we take a random sample of a population, where each member has the same chance of being included in the sample. The (unobserved) data of members in the population that were not included in the sample are MCAR. While convenient, MCAR is often unrealistic for the data at hand.

If the probability of being missing is the same only within groups defined by the observed data, then the data are missing at random (MAR). MAR is a much broader class than MCAR. For example, when placed on a soft surface, a weighing scale may produce more missing values than when placed on a hard surface. Such data are thus not MCAR. If, however, we know surface type and if we can assume MCAR within the type of surface, then the data are MAR. Another example of MAR is when we take a sample from a population, where the probability to be included depends on some known property. MAR is more general and more realistic than MCAR. Modern missing data methods generally start from the MAR assumption.

If neither MCAR nor MAR holds, then we speak of missing not at random (MNAR). In the literature one can also find the term NMAR (not missing at random) for the same concept. MNAR means that the probability of being missing varies for reasons that are unknown to us. For example, the weighing scale mechanism may wear out over time, producing more missing data as time progresses, but we may fail to note this. If the heavier objects are measured later in time, then we obtain a distribution of the measurements that will be distorted. MNAR includes the possibility that the scale produces more missing values for the heavier objects (as above), a situation that might be difficult to recognize and handle. An example of MNAR in public opinion research occurs if those with weaker opinions respond less often. MNAR is the most complex case. Strategies to handle MNAR are to find more data about the causes for the missingness, or to perform what-if analyses to see how sensitive the results are under various scenarios.

Rubin’s distinction is important for understanding why some methods will work, and others not. His theory lays down the conditions under which a missing data method can provide valid statistical inferences. Most simple fixes only work under the restrictive and often unrealistic MCAR assumption. If MCAR is implausible, such methods can provide biased estimates.